TODAY Tuesday, 8^th July, 2025

USD/INR:

The Indian Rupee (INR) bounces back against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair corrects to near 85.88 from the weekly high of 86.15 posted on Monday. The pair retraces as United States (US) President Donald Trump has reiterated confidence that Washington will strike a trade agreement with India.

"We've made a deal with the United Kingdom (UK), we've made a deal with China, we're close to making a deal with India,” Trump said to reporters at the White House on Monday.

The comments from US President Trump came after he announced tariff rates for 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, were slapped with 25% tariffs, and threatened to raise them if they pursue retaliation.

Meanwhile, investors seek specifications of the likely trade deal as signs of an increase in exposure of Indian entities to competition from US companies would be unfavorable for the domestic currency.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) sticks to its negative bias through the early European session on Tuesday amid worries that US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs could further complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) path to normalising monetary policy. Adding to this, signs of stability in the global risk sentiment turn out to be another factor that undermines the JPY's safe-haven status and assists the USD/JPY pair to hold steady above the 146.00 round figure.

Meanwhile, concerns about the economic impact of Trump's tariffs and geopolitical risks stemming from fresh conflicts in the Middle East might continue to weigh on investors' sentiment, which, in turn, could limit deeper JPY losses. Furthermore, US fiscal concerns keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed below a one-week high touched on Monday and contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair, warranting caution before positioning for additional gains.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD edges higher after two days of losses, trading around 1.3630 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground as traders adopt caution after US President Donald Trump announced updated tariff rates on 14 countries that have yet to secure trade deals with Washington.

The Trump administration announced levies of 25% on goods from Japan and South Korea, with threatens to escalate tariffs if the two nations retaliate. The US also imposed 25% rates on Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia, while South Africa would see a 30% tariff and Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy. Other nations hit with levies included Indonesia with a 32% rate, Bangladesh with 35%, and Thailand and Cambodia with duties of 36%. President Trump has also signed an executive order delaying the implementation of new tariffs from July to August 1, giving negotiators more time to reach agreements, per Bloomberg.

Trump posted on social media on Monday that “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy

The GBP/USD pair faced challenges as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggled amid escalating fiscal risks in United Kingdom (UK). The increase in the welfare spending bill by the administration has raised the likelihood of an announcement of a tax increase in the Autumn Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves indicated at possible tax hikes in the autumn budget to address a public finance gap.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers here to around 1.1745 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The upbeat Eurozone Retail Sales data for May provides some support to the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders will closely monitor the development surrounding the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) trade agreement. 

The EU hopes to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week, allowing it to lock in a 10% tariff rate beyond the August 1 deadline while they negotiate a permanent deal. Traders react to reports that the US proposed an offer that would maintain the 10% baseline tariffs but would exempt sensitive industries such as airplanes and spirits. Investors see 10% as a more palatable amount for levies compared with other counterparts, which will underpin the shared currency in the near term. 

Data released by Eurostat on Monday revealed that the Eurozone’s Retail Sales grew 1.8% YoY in May, compared to a revised 2.7% rise in April. This figure came in above the market consensus of a 1.2% figure. On a monthly basis, the Eurozone Retail Sales declined 0.7% in May versus 0.3% prior (revised from 0.1%), aligning with the market expectations.

Gold:

The Gold price ( XAU/USD) trades in negative territory near $3,330 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer US Dollar (USD). The precious metal edges lower on easing trade tension after US President Donald Trump announced an extension to the upcoming tariff deadline and suggested that he was still open to additional negotiations.

Market concerns eased after Trump hinted at the possibility of an additional trade deal and delays of the tariff deadline. Trump further stated that the August 1 deadline was “not 100% firm,” signaling he remained open to continuing to tweak the rates. Optimism surrounding Trump’s tariff policies lifts the Greenback and weighs on the USD-denominated commodities price, as a firmer USD makes Gold more expensive for foreign buyers. 

Gold traders will closely monitor further announcements in the White House's trade negotiations. Any signs of renewed trade tensions and fears of a global trade war could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 8^th  July, 2025 @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:   0.10/1.00       Cash/Spot: 0.20/2.00

 Tom/Spot:    0.10/1.00         Spot/Next: 0.10/1.00

Cash Date:    08.07.2025

Tom Date:      09.07.2025

Spot Date:     10.07.2025

Outlook for the day 8^th   July: Rupee expected to trade in range of 85.60/85.90

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (7^th   July, 2025)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 7^th July, 2025

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 4^th  July, 2025

Stock Indices

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