Last Updated on: 07/08/2024
TODAY: Wednesday, 07th August, 2024
USD/INR:
Markets have miraculously turned around today after the ‘manic’ Monday crash yesterday. As we write, Japan’s Nikkei is up 10% and has recovered most of yesterday’s losses. The market crash of yesterday, which triggered by a double-digit dip in Japan’s Nikkei and TOPIX indices, served as a stark reminder of how leveraged markets are and how interconnected the moves can be. The BOJ hawkish stance on the JPY led to an avalanche of carry trade unwinds which resulted in a global sell-off yesterday. US equities crashed 2.5%+ and the NASDAQ fell 3%+. Indian indices also were down 3%.
The significant market surge today is marked by a reversal in USDJPY which is back close to145. It seems that the BOJ is now in the market stabilizing the USDJPY fall and may in fact be actively buying USDJPY. US futures are also up 1.5%+ and might be claw back most of yesterday’s losses today, if the USDJPY move sustains. Some of the positivity came also due to a good ISM services data, which suggested continued expansion in US services economy.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar recovered ground against most major peers on Tuesday and the Japanese yen steadied around seven-month highs against the U.S. currency, as some of the more striking moves of recent days reversed somewhat and a semblance of calm returned to markets.
The dollar was last at 145.01 yen, up 0.54% on the day, after tumbling against the Japanese currency for five straight sessions. The greenback has fallen nearly 6% against the yen over the last five trading days.
A reassessment was also taking place across equity markets, with Japan's benchmark Nikkei index gaining 10% on Tuesday after a 12% fall the day before, while shares in Europe also tried to recover. [MKTS/GLOB]
GBP/USD:
On Tuesday, the Pound Sterling prolonged its agony and extended its losses against the Greenback. Although sentiment has improved following Monday's stock riot, the buck remains bid, as shown by the GBP/USD pair, which trades at 1.2709, down by 0.49%.
During the trading session, the GBP/USD tested the 100-day moving average (DMA) At 1.2683 and dipped to a new five-week low of 1.2672, but buyers emerged and lifted the exchange rate above 1.2700. Despite this, momentum favors sellers, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), standing bearish.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD trimmed recent gains and slipped back from the 1.1000 handle on Tuesday as markets continue to digest a recent rebalancing in FX market flows. Investors have recovered their footing and resumed betting on an uptick in the pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) beginning in September. Pan-EU economic data did little to meaningfully move the needle on Tuesday, with a mid-tier release schedule on the cards for Wednesday.
Forex Today: Markets’ attention remains on data and rate cut bets
Pan-EU Retail Sales contracted -0.3% YoY in June, entirely missing the forecast 0.1% and falling from the previous period’s revised 0.5%. German Industrial Production figures are due on Wednesday, expected to recover to 1% growth MoM in June from the previous period’s -2.5% contraction.
Gold
Reports of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh being killed in Iran during a visit to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian caused geopolitical tensions to escalate. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised “harsh punishment” for Israel in retaliation for the death of Haniyeh. Gold benefited from growing fears over a deepening crisis in the Middle East and continued to push higher.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday that it left monetary policy settings unchanged, as widely expected. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there was a “real discussion” about the case for reducing rates at the July meeting, adding that a rate cut could be on the table in September. Although a 25 basis points (bps) September rate cut was already fully priced in, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield turned south after the Fed event and lost over 2.5% on the day, providing an additional boost to Gold.
USD/INR as on 06th August, 2024
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.9910
83.8280
83.93
Forward premium (%) as on 06th August, 2024
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
1.02/1.15
1.31/1.36
1.60/1.62
2.05/2.06
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 07th August, 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.05/0.75 Cash/Spot:0.10/1.50
Tom/Spot: 0.05/0.75 Spot/Next: 0.15/2.10
Cash Date: 05.08.2024
Tom Date: 06.08.2024
Spot Date: 07.08.2024
Outlook for the day 07th August, 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.85-84.00
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (06th August, 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2777
1.2803
1.2670
1.2689
EUR
1.0952
1.0963
1.0902
1.0930
AUD
0.6496
0.6541
0.6470
0.6518
JPY
144.16
146.36
143.60
144.30
CHF
0.8518
0.8571
0.8499
0.8513
XAU
2409.79
2418.12
2381.59
2389.37
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 06th August, 2024
USD/INR: 83.9575 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0917
91.6564
1 GBP =
1.2693
106.5673
100 JPY =
145.16
57.8379
1 AUD =
0.6478
54.3877
1 CHF =
0.8539
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 06th August, 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2396.55
Silver ($/oz)
27.07
Stock Indices
Index Close
02nd July, 2024
06th August, 2024
BSE Sensex
78759.40
78593.07
NSE Nifty
24055.60
23992.55
Dow Jones
38703.27
38997.66
NASDAQ
16200.08
16366.85
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
07/08/24
CAD
07.30 PM
Ivey PMI
y/y
10.30 PM
USD 10 Y Bond Auction
BOJ Policy Rate
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