Last Updated on: 15/07/2024
TODAY: Monday, 15th July, 2024
USD/INR:
Dollar has opened stronger after Friday’s CPI-driven bout of weakness. The attempted assassination of Trump has led to caution among markets and Dollar is higher due to a safe-haven bid. Dollar Index is at 104.25, with EUR at 1.0890 (after being above 1.09) and GBP at 1.2965 and JPY at 158.10. US equity future remain positive for now, as markets ponder the implications of the assassination on the election outcome. Friday saw a 0.5%+ close for the DOW. Indian equities closed in the green on Friday, but might see a jitteriness today owing to the developments in the US.
This week has Powell speech, US retail sales and ECB rate decision along with India CPI slated. USDINR could remain put as the global environment remains benign despite the mild safe-haven bid.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
The dollar, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, initially gained after Trump’s right ear was hit, leaving his face blooded, after shots rang out at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend.
Trump is now set to appear at the 2024 Republican convention later this week, and is likely to be nominated as the party’s frontrunner for the presidential race.
Analysts said that the shooting increased his chances of a victory over Joe Biden- a scenario that could eventually favor the dollar, given that Trump has signaled his intent to enact more protectionist trade policies.
However, these gains have dissipated ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as he is set to be interviewed by David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington DC.
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers on the first day of a new week and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to over a one-month peak, around the 1.0910 area touched on Friday. Spot prices currently trade below the 1.0900 mark amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, though any meaningful corrective decline seems elusive.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 1.0800 confluence hurdle – comprising 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) – and a downward-sloping line favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the upside amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
GBP/USD:
After closing the day decisively higher on Thursday, GBP/USD continued to edge higher and touched its strongest level in nearly a year, a few pips above 1.2950. The near-term technical outlook shows that the pair remains overbought.
The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuelled GBP/USD's rally during the American trading hours on Thursday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that annual inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), softened to 3% on a yearly basis in June from 3.3% in May. This reading came in below the market expectation of 3.1%. Additionally, the CPI declined 0.1% on a monthly basis.
The probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving the policy rate unchanged in September dropped below 10% following the inflation data, causing the USD to weaken against its major rivals.
Gold
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to near $2,400 in Monday’s European session after a modest correction from seven-week high of $2,424 on Thursday. The precious metal edged lower as the US Dollar gained ground after an assassination attack on former United States (US) President Donald Trump improved the US Dollar’s appeal.
The sniper attack on Trump has increased his odds of winning the US Presidential elections later this year. This has led to investors pouring funds into the US Dollar, as Donald Trump is known for favoring protective trade policies, which is a favorable scenario for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gains firm footing near 104.00
USD/INR as on 12th July, 2024
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.5350
83.5525
83.4900
Forward premium (%) as on 12th July, 2024
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
1.02/1.16
1.13/1.18
1.31/1.34
1.69/1.71
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 15th July 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.05/0.75 Cash/Spot:0.15/2.25
Tom/Spot: 0.10/1.50 Spot/Next: 0.05/0.75
Cash Date: 15.07.2024
Tom Date: 16.07.2024
Spot Date: 18.07.2024
Outlook for the day 15th July, 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.45-83.65
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (12th July , 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2909
1.2993
1.2899
1.2992
EUR
1.0864
1.0911
1.0860
1.0906
AUD
0.6757
0.6793
0.6751
0.6783
JPY
158.80
159.44
157.37
157.89
CHF
0.8964
0.8970
0.8931
0.8940
XAU
2416.09
2418.19
2391.35
2411.27
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 12th July , 2024
USD/INR: 83.54 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0885
90.9333
1 GBP =
1.2955
108.2261
100 JPY =
159.15
52.4914
1 AUD =
0.6773
56.5816
1 CHF =
0.8960
93.2366
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 12th July , 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2406.85
Silver ($/oz)
30.72
Stock Indices
Index Close
11th July , 2024
12th July , 2024
BSE Sensex
79897.34
80519.34
NSE Nifty
24315.95
24502.15
Dow Jones
39753.75
40000.90
NASDAQ
18283.41
18398.45
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
15/07/24
06.30 PM
Empire State Manufacturing Index
y/y
09.30 PM
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
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