TODAY THURSDAY, 25^th September, 2025

USD/INR:

The Indian rupee is likely to maintain its depreciation bias on Thursday even as traders anticipate the central bank's interventions to avert sharp declines, while foreign portfolio outflows and concerns over U.S. policy shifts continue to weigh.The 1month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee  will open in the 88.74-88.77 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 88.69 in the previous session.

The local currency faced consistent pressure this month on concerns over steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and a U.S. visa fee hike that could threaten long-standing business models of Indian IT firms.

Given the headwinds, analysts at Bank of America have revised their year-end forecast for the rupee to 86 from 85.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD pair recovers some lost ground to around 1.3460 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as traders await more cues from the Fedspeak later on Tuesday. Also, the final print of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter (Q2), Durable Goods Orders and weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be published. 

Traders weighed the prospect of a Federal Reserve (Fed) easing cycle in the wake of a cautious tone from policymakers while awaiting data that may outline the impact of tariffs. Fed’s Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing on Tuesday, saying that the US central bank needs to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weak job market in coming policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that further rate reductions likely will be needed, as the central bank works to restore price stability and provide needed support to the labor market. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against a series of rate cuts.  

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD rebounds after registering more than 0.5% losses in the previous session, trading around 1.1750 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground ahead of the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey due later in the day.

The Euro (EUR) faced challenges against its peers following the disappointing headline German IFO Business Climate Index released on Wednesday, which unexpectedly fell to 87.7 in September from 89.0 in August. The data undermined the market expectations of 89.3.

However, the EUR/USD pair maintains its position as the US Dollar (USD) struggles ahead of the Fedspeak later in the day. Focus will shift toward Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due later on Friday.

Gold:

Gold retreats slightly from the daily peak touched during the first half of the European session, though it sticks to the positive bias for the fourth straight day on Wednesday. The US Dollar gains some positive traction following a two-day fall in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks on potential interest rate cuts.

Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs again in October and December following a 25 basis points rate cut earlier this month. This assists the non-yielding Gold to attract some dip-buying during the Asian session on Wednesday.

Chair Jerome Powell tried to push back expectations of more rate cuts in the coming months and said on Tuesday that the central bank needed to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in coming rate decisions.

Powell added that easing too aggressively could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course. This helps revive the US Dollar demand following a two-day retracement slide from an over one-week high and might cap the precious metal.

NATO warned Russia on Tuesday that it would use all necessary military and non-military tools to defend itself. This follows Russia's recent large-scale provocation and the violation of the airspace of NATO alliance members – Estonia, Poland, and Romania.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 25^th September, 2025 @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:   0.05/1.00         Cash/Spot:0.10/2.00

 Tom/Spot:   0.05/1.00           Spot/Next: 0.15/2.500

Cash Date:    25.09.2025

Tom Date:      26.09.2025

Spot Date:     30.09.2025

Outlook for the day 25^th September: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.45 to 88.80

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (24^th September , 2025)

Foreign Currencies

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 24^th September 2025

Precious Metals

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 24^th September 2025

Stock Indices

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