TODAY Tuesday,9th   September , 2025

USD/INR:

The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Tuesday, supported by a lower U.S. dollar and Treasury yields after weak jobs data made it certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 87.96–88.00 range against the dollar, up from 88.2650 on Friday when it touched a record low of 88.36. Indian FX and money markets were shut on Monday.The rupee has "managed a breather" on the back of the U.S. jobs data. The currency will be catching up with the strength in Asian peers, which extended into Tuesday, after data showed that job growth slowing significantly and unemployment climbed to a near four-year high, indicating cooling labour market conditions and sealing the chances for a Fed cut.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

 The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, extends its downside to around 97.40 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The expectations of jumbo rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) undermine the DXY. Traders will take more cues from the US August Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is due later on Wednesday. 

The US Dollar edges lower in the wake of Friday's weak US jobs report. The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revealed a slowing in hiring in August, while the unemployment rate increased to its highest level since 2021, suggesting that labor market conditions in the world's largest economy are deteriorating. These reports raise expectations for Fed rate cuts. 

According to the LSEG estimates, Fed funds futures are currently pricing in nearly a 90% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) cut this month and a 10% odds of a 50 bps rate cut. 

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3560, the highest since August 15, during the early European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as weaker US jobs data shore up the case for deeper Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. The US Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision for jobs data will be released later on Tuesday. 

The US NFP report released on Friday showed a slowdown in hiring in August, while the Unemployment Rate rose to the highest level since 2021, confirming that labor market conditions in the world’s biggest economy are slumping. 

Analysts expected a downward revision of as much as 800,000 jobs in the preliminary benchmark revisions covering the period from April 2024 to March 2025. The report could signal that the US central bank is behind the curve in efforts to achieve maximum employment. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate (bps) cut at the Fed's September meeting and a 10.6% probability of a jumbo 50 bps rate cut, according to the CMEFedWatch tool

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.1780 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to face challenges, following last week’s weaker-than-expected August jobs data, which has bolstered expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates in September. Markets are increasingly betting on the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point move.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing in nearly 90% of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 86% a week ago, with 10% odds of a potential 50 bps reduction this month. Traders will likely watch the US Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision due later in the day.

Investors are preparing for a busy week of economic data from the United States (US), highlighted by two key inflation reports that could shape the interest rate outlook. The August US Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, with expectations that the headline PPI for August to rise 3.3% year-on-year, while the core measure is projected to increase 3.5% over the same period. Focus will shift toward Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Gold:

Gold (XAU/USD) begins the week on an impressive bullish note, soaring to fresh all-time highs above $3,600 per ounce on Monday. The move extends last week’s rally amid growing conviction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its September monetary policy meeting, a shift markets now treat as a near certainty following a string of weak US labor market data. The yellow metal has already climbed about 38% so far this year, underscoring its strong appeal as investors flock to safe-haven assets.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $3,635, pushing into uncharted territory as a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and expectations of imminent Fed monetary easing keep demand elevated. Last week’s economic releases confirmed that the US labor market is losing momentum. As the employment Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed on Friday, the US economy added just 22K jobs in August, far below the 75K forecast, while the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3%, its highest since late 2021. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his Jackson Hole remarks late in August, warned that “downside risks to employment are increasing,” describing the labor market as in a “curious kind of balance” where both supply and demand for workers are softening.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 9^th  September , 2025 @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:   0.10/1.00          Cash/Spot:0.20/2.00

 Tom/Spot:   0.10/1.00           Spot/Next: 0.10/1.25

Cash Date:    02.09.2025

Tom Date:      03.09.2025

Spot Date:     04.09.2025

Outlook for the day 9^th   September: Rupee expected to trade in range of 87.95 to 88.15

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (8^th  September, 2025)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 8^th   September 2025

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 8^th  September 2025

Stock Indices

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