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NRI Newsletter - Market News

Last Updated on: 06/10/2025

NRI Newsletter - Market News

TODAY Friday, 06th October, 2025

 

USD/INR:

The rupee shuffled near its all-time low on Monday, with possible intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helping it steady against the lingered drag from steep U.S. tariffs.

The currency  USDINR was last at 88.76 to the dollar as of 10:40 a.m. IST, little changed from 88.7725 in the previous session. Despite frequent RBI support, it remains Asia's worst performer this year, down 3%.

Traders said that the rupee may see some relief during the week on account of foreign portfolio inflows spurred by two large initial public offerings slated for this week.

Non-bank lender Tata Capital's $1.75 billion share sale kicks off on Monday while LG Electronics India will open its $1.3 billion IPO on Tuesday.

 MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

   Most Asian currencies were subdued on Monday as investors stayed cautious amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, while the Japanese yen slumped after Sanae Takaichi won the ruling party leadership election, which is seen as supportive of loose monetary policy.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.3% in Asian trading. US Dollar Index Futures gained 0.4% 

Takaichi, a conservative lawmaker and long-time advocate of expansionary “Abenomics”-style policies, secured victory in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) runoff on Saturday with 54.25% of the vote.

Takaichi is poised to be confirmed as prime minister in a parliamentary session in mid-October, barring any resistance from opposition parties. She will become Japan’s first female prime minister.

Her win sets Japan on a path toward more government spending, which is seen as reducing the urgency for monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan.

The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair jumped as much as 1.7% to 150 yen, its highest level in over a month.

Japanese government bonds sold off alongside the currency, with the long-term bond yields rising sharply, reflecting expectations of increased issuance to fund stimulus measures.

 

 GBP/USD:

 

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's strong move up and opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and seem to have stabilized below mid-1.3400s, still down over 0.30% for the day.

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader over the weekend. Given that Takaichi is viewed as fiscally dovish, the outcome raises the chance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could delay raising interest rates further and trigger massive selling around the Japanese Yen (JPY). This, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the USD, which turns out to be a key factor weighing on the GBP/USD pair.

  

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1720 during the Asian hours on Monday. The downside of the pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) may struggle amid the rising likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the upcoming meetings. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and an 84% possibility of another reduction in December.

The upside of the Greenback could also be restrained as concerns rise after United States (US) Senators failed to pass spending proposals to reopen the federal government for a fourth time, extending the ongoing shutdown into a new week. The closure has suspended key federal programs and delayed major economic reports, including September’s jobs data originally due Friday.

 

 

 

Gold:

Gold sets aside Thursday’s hiccup and revisits the area of $3,890 per troy ounce in the wake of the release of US data on Friday. The yellow metal’s recovery comes amid decent losses in the Greenback, mixed US yields across the curve, and rising uncertainty surrounding the impact of the US shutdown on the economy.

The overnight breakdown below a one-week-old ascending trend-line backs the case for a further long unwinding amid still overbought daily Relative Strength Index (RSI). Any further slide, however, is more likely to find support near the overnight swing low, around the $3,820-3,819 region. This is followed by the $3,800 mark, which, if broken decisively, should pave the way for deeper losses. The subsequent downfall could drag the Gold price to the next relevant support near the $3,758-3,757 zone en route to the $3,735 region and the $3,700 round figure.

On the flip side, the ascending trend-line support breakpoint, around the $3,863-3,865 zone, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could aim to retest the all-time peak, around the $3,896-3,897 region. Some follow-through buying beyond the $3,900 mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for the XAU/USD bulls and set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend.

 

 

USD/INR as on 03rd October, 2025

Currency

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

USD/INR

88.75

88.81

88.66

88.81

Forward premium (%) as on 03rd October , 2025

Periods

1 Month

3 Month

6 Month

12 Month

Premium

1.96/1.98

2.04/2.12

2.20/2.24

2.31/2.33

 

 

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 06th October 2025@ 09.00am)

 

 Cash/Tom:   0.10/1.25         Cash/Spot:0.20/2.50

 Tom/Spot:   0.10/1.25         Spot/Next: 0.10/1.25

 

Cash Date:    06.10.2025

Tom Date:      07.10.2025

Spot Date:     08.10.2025

Outlook for the day 06thOctober, 2025: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.60 to 88.85

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (03rd October 2025)

CURRENCY

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

GBP

1.3430

1.3486

1.3425

1.3478

EUR

1.1714

1.1758

1.1712

1.1741

AUD

0.6595

0.6614

0.6586

0.6601

JPY

147.25

147.81

147.07

147.44

CHF

0.798

0.7981

0.7944

0.7953

XAU

 

3891.49

3837.63

3885.99

 

Foreign Currencies

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 03rd October , 2025

USD/INR: 88.7775[FXIR]

Against

USD

INR

1 GBP    =

1.3449

119.3969

1 EUR   =

1.1735

104.1804

100 JPY =

147.28

60.2780

1 CHF   =

0.7962

111.5015

1 AUD    =

0.6605

58.6375

 

Precious Metals

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 03rd October , 2025

Gold ($/oz)

3885.70

Silver ($/oz)

47.6050

 

Stock Indices

 

Index Close

  01st Oct

03rd Oct

BSE Sensex

80983.31

81207.17

NSE Nifty

24836.30

24894.25

Dow Jones

46441.10

46758.28

NASDAQ

22755.16

22780.51

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Major Economic Data Releases for the Day 06.10.2025

Date

Time (IST)

Region

Description

06.10.2025

10.30PM

EUR

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

06.10.2025

11.00PM

GBP

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The views contained herein are those of individuals and not necessarily those of the Bank.  This is for information purpose only and no recommendations are intended.  While due care has been taken in preparation of this communication, IOB cannot be held responsible for any consequences of any decisions based on this information. Comments/Suggestions may be freely emailed to feddeal@iobnet.co.in