TODAY Thursday, 25^th September, 2025

USD/INR:

The Indian rupee managed to hold above its all-time low on Friday, supported by likely central bank intervention, even as steep U.S. tariffs on branded drug imports compounded lingering concerns over a hit to trade and foreign portfolio flows.

The domestic currency was expected to open near and dip past its lifetime low of 88.7975 at the open, which it avoided largely due to intervention from the Reserve Bank of India, traders said.

The rupee was last hovering near the 88.70 mark, little changed on the day.

The RBI likely intervened in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market and the local OTC spot market to support the rupee, seven traders told Reuters.

U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a new round of tariffs on Thursday, including a 100% duty on any branded or patented pharmaceutical products. Indian pharmaceutical stocks (.NIFPHARM) fell 1.7%, dragging the benchmark Nifty 50 (.NIFTY) index nearly 0.4% lower.

IT stocks , in the spotlight after the U.S. sharply hiked fees on H1-B visas late last week, were down more than 1% as well.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD is paring back gains to hover around 1.3450 in the European trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar struggles with its latest upswing as traders await more cues from Fedspeak and a fresh batch of mid-tier US economic data for a fresh directional impetus.

The final US Q2 GDP print, along with Durable Goods Orders and the usual Initial Weekly Jobless Claims data, will be published later today. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. The latter is seen as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge and will play a key role in influencing expectations about the future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair.

In the meantime, the Fed's hawkish outlook, signaling the need for two more rate cuts this year amid concerns about a softening US labor market, keeps a lid on the overnight US Dollar (USD) rally to a two-week top and supports the GBP/USD pair. Traders are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs again in October and December following the first rate reduction since December last week. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks help limit USD losses.

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD holds its rebound to near 1.1750 in European trading on Thursday, after registering more than 0.5% losses in the previous session. The pair draws support from a pause in the US Dollar recovery as traders turn cautious ahead of a slew of US data releases and speeches from Fed officials. 

The souring risk mood helped the US Dollar (USD) outperform its major rivals midweek. Additionally, the upbeat housing data, which showed an impressive 20.5% increase in New Home Sales in August, further supported the currency.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday that he would be uncomfortable with overly frontloading rate cuts, arguing that the labor market is still solid.

In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature August Durable Goods Orders, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, second-quarter Gross Domestic (GDP) revision and Existing Home Sales data for August.

A noticeable decline in the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits could be supportive for the USD with the immediate reaction. In case Durable Goods Orders data also comes in better than the market forecast for a 0.5% decline, the USD could continue to gather strength.

Gold:

Gold finds a foothold and clings to small daily gains near $3,750 after snapping a three-day winning streak on Wednesday. The risk-averse market atmosphere and escalating geopolitical tensions help XAU/USD hold its ground as focus shift to US data.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's comments earlier this week pushed the US Dollar to a two-week top and weighed heavily on the non-yielding Gold price on Wednesday. Powell tried to push back against expectations of more interest rate cuts and said that easing too aggressively could leave the inflation job unfinished and necessitate a reversal of course.

Traders, however, still expect the US central bank to lower borrowing costs again in October and December, following a 25-basis-point rate cut earlier this month. This was the first rate cut since December amid concerns about a softening US labor market. Moreover, the dovish outlook caps any further USD gains and offers some support to the commodity.

US President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against Russia and said on Tuesday that he believes NATO member countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace. Trump added further that Ukraine, with the support of the European Union and NATO, could win back all of the territory Russia has captured since its invasion.

This marked a significant shift in Trump's attitude toward Russia. In response, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declared on Wednesday that Russia would continue its offensive on Ukraine to ensure its interests and achieve its goals. Adding to this, Peskov hit back at Trump’s claim and said that the idea that Ukraine can recapture something is mistaken.

Trump reportedly promised Arab and Muslim leaders that he would not allow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex the West Bank. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis forces in Yemen claim responsibility for a drone strike, which hit the Israeli city of Eilat on Wednesday. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and underpins the safe-haven commodity.

Traders now look forward to important US macro releases and speeches from influential FOMC members for some meaningful impetus. The key focus, meanwhile, will be on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which will play a key role in driving the USD demand and determining the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD pair.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 26^th September, 2025 @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:   0.75/2.00         Cash/Spot:0.85/2.80

 Tom/Spot:   0.10/0.80           Spot/Next: 0.75/2.75

Cash Date:    26.09.2025

Tom Date:      30.09.2025

Spot Date:     30.09.2025

Outlook for the day 26^th September: Rupee expected to trade in range of 88.45 to 88.80

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (25^th September , 2025)

Foreign Currencies

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) on 25^th September 2025

Precious Metals

Updated:17:30 hrs.(12:00 GMT) as on 25^th September 2025

Stock Indices

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