TODAY Friday,29^th  August, 2025

USD/INR:

The Indian rupee is expected to open largely unchanged on Friday, caught between expectations of the Reserve Bank of India stepping in to prevent further losses and the drag from persistent equity outflows and weak sentiment.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee  will open in the 87.60 to 87.64 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 87.6250 in the previous session.The rupee has largely struggled this week, with brief attempts at recovery quickly fizzling out on concerns over the broader economic impact of the additional U.S. tariffs.

Despite that, the currency is down only 0.1% so far this week, with traders pointing to Reserve Bank of India's intervention that has kept it from sliding to an all-time low.Foreign outflows have accelerated over the past two sessions, with investors pulling out more than $1 billion from Indian equities weighing on the rupee. Local equities have dropped nearly 2% over that period.

"The bias (on the dollar/rupee) is higher, no question. However, with the RBI expected to sit heavy at 87.80-88, there’s no definitive trade

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

 Asian currencies were mostly weaker on Friday, with the exception of the Chinese yuan. The dollar index was marginally higher.

The focus is now on the release of the U.S. PCE price index data - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation - for clues on the rate outlook.Traders are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September.Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday said he wants to start cutting interest rates next month and "fully expects" more rates cuts to follow to bring the Fed's policy rate near to a neutral setting.

It’s all eyes on the US data docket on Friday. US PCE inflation for the year ended in July is expected to tick upwards to 2.9% YoY, and investors have their fingers crossed that US inflation will remain under control enough for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to be pushed by lagging employment figures into delivering an interest rate cut on September 17. Core annual US PCE inflation has run above the Fed’s 2% inflation target every single month since April 2021, and has functionally made no progress since July of 2024.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD marched its way into a third consecutive bullish session on Thursday, climbing back over the 1.3500 handle and paring away most of the early-week losses from Monday’s half-percent decline. Cable remains firmly entrenched in recent consolidation, but markets are positioning themselves for an upside reaction after Friday’s upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation print.

GBP/USD is tilting into the bullish side after skidding across the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3455 over the past couple of weeks. Cable still remains over 2% down from multi-year highs posted in July, but has climbed 2.8% from four-month lows near 1.3140.

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD loses ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.1660 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders await July Retail Sales and August preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany later in the day. Focus will shift toward the July US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data due in the North American session.

The EUR/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) recovers ground, as the United States (US) economy grew in the second quarter. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized climbed 3.3% in Q2, a faster pace than the initially estimated 3.1% increase and 3.0% prior.

Gold:

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its advance for a third straight session on Thursday, trading near a more than five-week high, buoyed by a softer US Dollar (USD) and subdued Treasury yields. The precious metal had come under pressure on Wednesday when a stronger Greenback limited gains, but the overnight pullback in the US Dollar, along with lower bond yields, has helped bullion regain momentum.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is consolidating gains near the $3,411 mark as traders digest the latest United States (US) economic data. The second estimate of Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a 3.3% annualized expansion, beating the 3.1% forecast and up from 3.0% previously. The GDP Price Index and headline PCE Prices (prelim) both printed at 2.0%, slipping from 2.1%. Meanwhile, the preliminary Core PCE Price Index rose 2.5% QoQ, just below the 2.6% expected, while Initial Jobless Claims fell to 229,000, slightly better than the 230,000 consensus and down from a revised 234,000.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 29^th    August , 2025 @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:   1.00/3.50          Cash/Spot:1.00/3.50

 Tom/Spot:                             Spot/Next: 0.10/0.90

Cash Date:    29.08.2025

Tom Date:      02.08.2025

Spot Date:     02.09.2025

Outlook for the day 29^th August: Rupee expected to trade in range of 87.65 to 87.85

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (28^th   August, 2025)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 28^th    August 2025

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 28^th   August 2025

Stock Indices

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