Last Updated on: 14/08/2024
TODAY: Wedesday, 14th August, 2024
USD/INR:
Dollar is steady and markets are trading calm after a tumultuous week last week. US CPI is due this week and the narrative will now shift to the economy and FOMC rate cuts again. Dollar Index is at 103.20, with EUR at 1.0915, GBP at 1.2755 and JPY at 146.75. US equities managed a green close on Friday, and Indian equities also staged a 1%+ up tick to close last week.
With JPY settling down for now, the focus of markets is now squarely back on the US inflation data. With the FOMC reiterating data dependency, this CPI is now critical before the September FOMC meeting. Signs of further reduction in inflation could give the Fed the reason to move ahead with higher quantum of rate cuts. The consensus is for a 2.3% print on the headline number, and anything lower than that will be cheered.
INR is again set-up for calm trading, at least until the CPI data. Hindenburg research has published another report regarding Indian markets and SEBI chairman. It remains to be seen if there is any incremental impact of that report on Indian markets and the Rupee.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
The dollar softened against the yen on Tuesday and was weaker against a basket of its peers in calmer trading, as markets await U.S. inflation data that could indicate the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
Dollar/yen weakened after data showed U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in July as a rise in the cost of goods was tempered by cheaper services, indicating that inflation continued to moderate. Treasuries rallied, pushing yields lower after the PPI report.
The more closely watched consumer price index report on Wednesday will also help guide the Fed's interest-rate policy.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD rallied into a two-week high on Tuesday, rising to a session peak of 1.2873 after market sentiment found the buy button. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation cooled more than expected, prompting a rush of bets into a higher pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, while Cable traders shrugged off a multi-year peak in UK unemployment claims.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are due on Wednesday on both sides of the Atlantic. Core UK CPI inflation is expected to tick down to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.5%. On US side, markets are banking on a continued cool-off in US inflation figures, with core US CPI for the year ended in July forecast to ease to 3.2% from the previous 3.3%.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD extended Monday’s advance and flirted with the 1.0980 zone on turnaround Tuesday, picking up momentum on the back of the intense sell-off in the US Dollar (USD).
Meanwhile, extra losses saw the Greenback retreat to multi-day lows in the sub-103.00 area when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), reflecting an improved sentiment in the risk complex, which was particularly exacerbated after a soft print from US Producer Prices in July, all ahead of the publication of the key US fundamentals later in the week.
Gold
The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and speculation about upcoming interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are providing a tailwind, even though these have recently been scaled back somewhat. According to Fed Funds Futures, however, a rate cut of 50 basis points in September is still priced in at around 50%. The US inflation data due tomorrow may raise expectations again, which could give the Gold price a further tailwind.
A new record high is therefore only a matter of time. The backdrop to the price slide a week ago, however, remains unclear. The CFTC data published on Friday did not show the expected strong reduction in speculative (net) long positions in the week ending August 6. ETFs do not serve as an explanation either.
USD/INR as on 13th August, 2024
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.94
83.97
Forward premium (%) as on 13th August, 2024
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
0.96/1.00
0.881.02
1.21/1.26
2.05/2.06
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 14th August, 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.10/1.50 Cash/Spot:0.25/3.75
Tom/Spot: 0.15/2.25 Spot/Next: 0.05/0.75
Cash Date: 14.08.2024
Tom Date: 16.08.2024
Spot Date: 19.08.2024
Outlook for the day 14th August, 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.90-84.00.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (13th August, 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2764
1.2873
1.2752
1.2857
EUR
1.0931
1.0999
1.0913
1.0992
AUD
0.6585
0.6637
0.6576
0.6631
JPY
147.19
147.94
146.59
146.82
CHF
0.8650
0.8680
0.8625
0.8647
XAU
2466.95
2472.49
2455.09
2461.07
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 13th August, 2024
USD/INR: 83.9750 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0924
91.7343
1 GBP =
1.2785
107.3620
100 JPY =
147.54
56.9168
1 AUD =
0.6596
55.3899
1 CHF =
0.8671
96.8458
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 13th August, 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2450.85
Silver ($/oz)
27.97
Stock Indices
Index Close
12th August, 2024
13th August, 2024
BSE Sensex
79648.92
78956.03
NSE Nifty
24347
24139
Dow Jones
39357.01
39765.64
NASDAQ
16780.61
17187.61
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
13/08/24
11.30 AM
CPI y/y
y/y
06.00 PM
Core CPI m/m
CPI m/m
BOJ Policy Rate
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