Last Updated on: 08/08/2024
TODAY: Thursday, 08th August, 2024
USD/INR:
Dollar is steady as markets remain calm after the Monday storm. Even as Japanese Indices managed to clawback significant portion of the Monday losses yesterday, US markets managed a moderate green close and Indian markets traded in the Red. USDJPY has lost momentum and is stable around 145.
Dollar Index is at 102.95, with EUR at 1.0925, GBP at 1.27 and JPY at 145. Nikkei is in moderate green, but USDJPY is giving signals of again topping out, which implies another bout of market fall could be on the cards unless BOJ intervenes. DOW closed 0.75% yesterday and NASDAQ ended 1%+ higher. Indian markets opened in the green, but closed in red. Sensex was down 0.2%. Yesterday’s Indian equity market behaviour indicates willingness to sell-off – a sign of frothiness and overvaluation.
The possibility of another sharp fall remains tangible, especially if the BOJ continues to try and keep their hawkish narrative going. While US recession fears remain central to the current narrative, the key is the FOMC stance in the coming days, and the extent to which markets could force the FOMC on rate cuts.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
The dollar gained a little Wednesday, benefiting in part from weakness in the yen and amid some bets that U.S. economic growth will not deteriorate as drastically as markets have been fearing.
The greenback was hit hard by fears of a U.S. recession after a batch of weak readings on the labor market, which ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates more than initially expected.
However, traders have adjusted their expectations of Fed cuts as this week has progressed, with markets now pricing in a 70% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps in September, the CME FedWatch tool showed, compared with an 85% chance a day earlier.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD tested waters on the high side on Wednesday but settled the day where it started just south of the 1.2700 handle. Markets are struggling to shrug off a broad downside shock kicked off late last week after a raft of US data came in below expectations, reigniting fears of a steep US recession looming over the horizon.
Investors have recovered their balance, but recovery remains a limited affair as Cable treads water. Meaningful economic data remains limited heading through the rest of the week, leaving investors to grapple with hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
Cable traders will be looking ahead to next week’s UK labor figures and an update to US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation. UK and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is also in the barrel for next week, as well as UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and US Retail Sales.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD paddled in a tight circle on Wednesday, churning just above the 1.0900 handle as Fiber traders take a breather from recent volatility sparked by a misprint in key US data last week. EUR/USD flubbed a bullish dash for 1.1000, leaving bids hung out to dry.
The rest of the trading week sees limited meaningful economic calendar releases, leaving Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets as the key market driver. Traders get a breather of high-impact data until next week, which sees US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation next Tuesday, followed by European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Wednesday alongside US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.
Gold
Despite a cautious market mood, in the face of resurfacing Middle East geopolitical tensions, the USD remains broadly subdued. A pullback in the US Treasury bond yields drags the Greenback lower. Risk-off flows return and lift the demand for the US government bonds, knocking down the yields while lifting Gold price.
Citing two sources familiar with intelligence on the matter, CNN News reported late Wednesday that Hezbollah appears increasingly set to act against Israel “independent” of an expected Iranian response to the recent killing of two terror leaders. According to CNN, multiple officials say Iran seems to still be hashing out its retaliation plans.
Meanwhile, markets speculate over aggressive US Federal Reserve (Fed) easing this year, as economic slowdown risks lurk, keeping the downbeat tone intact around the US Dollar. Markets are now pricing in a 75% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed, with major brokerages also anticipating a large rate cut in the next meeting, per Reuters.
USD/INR as on 07th August, 2024
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.9500
83.9860
83.8725
83.8850
Forward premium (%) as on 07th August, 2024
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
0.95/1.09
1.36/1.41
1.56/1.58
2.02/2.03
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 08th August, 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.05/0.75 Cash/Spot:0.30/2.50
Tom/Spot: 0.25/1.75 Spot/Next: 0.05/0.75
Cash Date: 08.08.2024
Tom Date: 09.08.2024
Spot Date: 12.08.2024
Outlook for the day 08th August, 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.85-84.00.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (07th August, 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2689
1.2735
1.2678
1.2691
EUR
1.0927
1.0936
1.0905
1.0921
AUD
0.6514
0.6574
0.6507
0.6517
JPY
144.33
147.89
144.29
146.69
CHF
0.8511
0.8662
0.8508
0.8616
XAU
2389.16
2406.80
2378.80
2381.53
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 07th August, 2024
USD/INR: 83.96 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0924
91.7179
1 GBP =
1.2732
106.8979
100 JPY =
147.21
57.0342
1 AUD =
0.6565
55.1197
1 CHF =
0.8621
97.3901
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 07th August, 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2400.45
Silver ($/oz)
27.15
Stock Indices
Index Close
06th August, 2024
07th August, 2024
BSE Sensex
78593.07
79468.01
NSE Nifty
23992.55
24297.50
Dow Jones
38997.66
38763.45
NASDAQ
16366.85
16195.81
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
08/08/24
06.00 PM
Unemployment Claims
y/y
10.31 PM
30-y Bond Auction
BOJ Policy Rate
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