Last Updated on: 18/07/2024
TODAY: Thursday, 18th July, 2024
USD/INR:
The Indian Rupee (INR) attracts some sellers on Thursday despite the weaker US Dollar (USD). The extended recovery in crude oil prices exerts some pressure on the INR as India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer. However, the downside for the local currency might be limited as rising odds of a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could weigh on the Greenback and pressure US bond yields to come down. Later on Thursday, investors will monitor the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Also, the Fed’s Lorie Logan is scheduled to speak. The dovish comments from the Fed officials might continue to undermine the USD in the near term.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
Most Asian currencies moved little on Monday, while the dollar caught some safe haven bids after the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend.
Regional trading volumes were muted on account of a Japanese market holiday. The yen weakened slightly against the dollar, keeping markets on edge over any potential government intervention.
Asian currencies had advanced sharply against the dollar last week amid increased optimism over interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. While the dollar retook some ground on Monday, it was nursing steep losses over the past two weeks.
Weak gross domestic product data from China somewhat dented sentiment towards Asian markets, while the yuan also weakened after the reading.
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.0935, snapping a two-day winning streak during the early European session on Thursday. The Greenback edges higher as traders turn cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting later in the day. On the US docket, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, awaiting further evidence of progress on inflation before adding to June’s initial cut. Market players see another rate cut in September, with futures markets showing nearly 80% odds of a rate cut.
GBP/USD:
The GBP/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through selling and remains well within the striking distance of the one-year peak touched the previous day. Spot prices currently hover around the 1.3000 psychological mark and seem poised to prolong the recent uptrend witnessed over the past three weeks or so.
A modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields assists the US Dollar (USD) in recovering a part of the previous day's heavy losses to a nearly four-month low, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start the rate-cutting cycle in September, along with the underlying strong bullish tone across the global equity markets, might cap the upside for the safe-haven Greenback.
Gold
Wednesday’s Gold price retracement could be attributed to profit-taking after the bright metal touched its highest level on record. In the early part of the day, Gold price rallied hard, courtesy of the recent dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and mixed US Retail Sales, which cemented an interest-rate cut in September.
Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.
Additionally, robust physical Gold demand from India and the weekend’s assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump also played a part in lifting the sentiment around Gold price.
However, the renewed strength in Gold price early Thursday is seen on the back of simmering tensions surrounding US-China trade, which could escalate on a likely Trump presidency. Following the Trump attack, markets are speculating Donald Trump will win the US Presidential election race.
A report that the US was considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China sent chip stocks and the Nasdaq tumbling overnight, led by AI pioneer Nvidia and Apple, per Reuters.
USD/INR as on 16th July, 2024
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.5925
83.6025
83.56
83.5825
Forward premium (%) as on 16th July, 2024
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
0.99/1.13
1.15/1.20
1.36/1.38
1.73/1.74
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 18th July 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.05/0.60 Cash/Spot:0.20/2.40
Tom/Spot: 0.15/1.80 Spot/Next: 0.05/0.60
Cash Date: 18.07.2024
Tom Date: 19.07.2024
Spot Date: 22.07.2024
Outlook for the day 18th July, 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.50-83.65
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (16th July , 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2971
1.3044
1.2962
1.3008
EUR
1.0898
1.0947
1.0893
1.0937
AUD
0.6732
0.6754
0.6719
0.6727
JPY
158.34
158.61
156.05
156.16
CHF
0.8939
0.8945
0.8825
0.8882
XAU
2475.94
2483.60
2451.39
2458.38
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 16th July , 2024
USD/INR: 83.5875 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0902
91.1271
1 GBP =
1.2969
108.4046
100 JPY =
52.7899
1 AUD =
0.6743
56.3631
1 CHF =
0.8952
93.3730
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 16th July , 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2480.25
Silver ($/oz)
30.92
Stock Indices
Index Close
16th July , 2024
17th July , 2024
BSE Sensex
80716.55
NSE Nifty
24613
Dow Jones
40211.72
41198.08
NASDAQ
18472.57
17996.92
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
18/07/24
11.30 AM
Claimant Count Change
y/y
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
05.45 PM
Main Refinancing Rate
Monetary Policy Statement
06.00 PM
Unemployment Claims
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
06.15 PM
ECB Press Conference
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