Last Updated on: 01/07/2024
TODAY: Monday, 1st July, 2024
USD/INR:
Dollar has edged lower after the PCE inflation on Friday came lower than last month’s and in line with expectations. Dollar Index is at 105.60, with EUR at 1.0745, GBP at 1.2660 and JPY at 160.90. US yields, though, rose higher after the PCE data did little to convince markets about the certainty of a rate cut and as consumer sentimeny numbers showed improvement. US equities were down on Friday, and Indian indices were mixed.
The start of a new month brings in fresh set of data this week starting with ISM and culminating with the US jobs report. Markets are looking for a confirmation of rate cut path and most of the data points recently have not been soft enough to confirm that narrative unequivocally. The PCE inflation at 2.6% was lower than month, bust just so. The coming jobs data and this month’s CPI will help markets reassess the rate cut chances. Dollar is in a sideways trade, as rate cut dynamics are balanced by lack of economic base for other global majors.
The Rupee is firmly in the range. The formal inclusion of India in the JPM bond index will result in higher flows in the coming months, and the global Dollar stability will also mean that the rupee will still be restricted in the quantum of appreciation.
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:
USD:
The greenback has been in demand, with this set to be the second quarterly gain in a row, as markets have trimmed expectations for U.S. rate cuts over the past six months.
The dollar index has posted gains of just under 5% so far this year.
That said, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, is due later in the session, and is expected to show that annual growth slowed to 2.6% in May.
While this would be still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% medium-term target, it may open the way to cuts later this year.
“The market does not fully price in the first Fed rate cut until November and thus there should be room for U.S. short-dated rates to drop as focus shifts more squarely to a September rate cut,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
The dollar was also helped overnight by a disappointing performance by President Joe Biden in the first presidential debate late Thursday, increasing the chances of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning November’s vote.
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's rebound from the 1.0665 region, or a nearly two-month low and gains strong positive traction for the third successive day on Monday. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 1.0760 area, or a two-week high during the Asian session and is sponsored by a combination of factors.
Exit polls showed that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's snap elections on Sunday, though by a smaller margin than projected. This, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the shared currency, which, along with some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling, fueled by rising bets for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
GBP/USD:
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s New York session. The GBP/USD pair rises slightly as the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index declined expectedly in May.
The core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, decelerated to 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), as expected, from April’s reading of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the underlying inflation grew modestly by 0.1% against the prior increase of 0.2%.
Soft inflation figures have weighed on the US Dollar (USD) and would boost expectations of early rate cuts by the Fed. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls to 105.80.
Gold
Gold prices retreated during Friday’s session after an inflation report revealed progress in the disinflationary process and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in 2024. Even though the golden metal jumped and hit a four-day high of $2,339, it retreated somewhat, with XAU/USD trading at $2,324, down 0.12%.
Bullion prices seesawed after the announcement of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for May, which was aligned with estimates and painted an optimistic outlook for American consumers hit by higher prices.
USD/INR as on 28th June, 2024
Currency
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
USD/INR
83.395
83.4875
83.3575
83.3825
Forward premium (%) as on 28th June, 2024
Periods
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
12 Month
Premium
0.99/1.13
1.12/1.17
1.28/1.33
1.64/1.65
USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)
(Updated as on 01st July 2024, @ 09.00am)
Cash/Tom: 0.40/2.40 Cash/Spot:0.50/3.20
Tom/Spot: 0.10/0.80 Spot/Next: 0.10/0.80
Cash Date: 26.06.2024
Tom Date: 27.06.2024
Spot Date: 28.06.2024
Outlook for the day 01st July, 2024
Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.35-83.57
MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (28th June, 2024)
CURRENCY
GBP
1.2623
1.2670
1.2610
1.2380
EUR
1.0678
1.0726
1.0675
1.0702
AUD
0.6646
0.6672
0.6637
0.6645
JPY
160.79
160.83
160.27
160.74
CHF
0.8969
0.8988
0.8955
0.8985
XAU
2299.43
2330.80
2296.35
2327.45
Foreign Currencies
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 28th June, 2024
USD/INR: 83.3875 [FXIR]
Against
USD
INR
1 EUR =
1.0705
89.2663
1 GBP =
1.2651
105.4935
100 JPY =
160.51
51.9516
1 AUD =
0.6668
55.6028
1 CHF =
0.8994
92.7146
Precious Metals
Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 28th June, 2024
Gold ($/oz)
2330.90
Silver ($/oz)
29.37
Stock Indices
Index Close
27th june, 2024
28th june, 2024
BSE Sensex
79243.18
79032.73
NSE Nifty
24044.50
24010.60
Dow Jones
39164.06
39118.86
NASDAQ
17858.68
17732.60
Major Economic Data Releases for the Day
Date
Region
Time (IST)
Description
01/07/24
All Day
German Prelim CPI m/m
y/y
07.15 PM
Final Manufacturing PMI
07.30 PM
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing Prices
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