TODAY: Thursday, 18th July, 2024

USD/INR:

The Indian Rupee (INR) attracts some sellers on Thursday despite the weaker US Dollar (USD). The extended recovery in crude oil prices exerts some pressure on the INR as India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer. However, the downside for the local currency might be limited as rising odds of a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could weigh on the Greenback and pressure US bond yields to come down. 

Later on Thursday, investors will monitor the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Also, the Fed’s Lorie Logan is scheduled to speak. The dovish comments from the Fed officials might continue to undermine the USD in the near term. 

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through selling and remains well within the striking distance of the one-year peak touched the previous day. Spot prices currently hover around the 1.3000 psychological mark and seem poised to prolong the recent uptrend witnessed over the past three weeks or so.

A modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields assists the US Dollar (USD) in recovering a part of the previous day's heavy losses to a nearly four-month low, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start the rate-cutting cycle in September, along with the underlying strong bullish tone across the global equity markets, might cap the upside for the safe-haven Greenback.

Gold

Wednesday’s Gold price retracement could be attributed to profit-taking after the bright metal touched its highest level on record. In the early part of the day, Gold price rallied hard, courtesy of the recent dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and mixed US Retail Sales, which cemented an interest-rate cut in September.

Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.

Additionally, robust physical Gold demand from India and the weekend’s assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump also played a part in lifting the sentiment around Gold price.

However, the renewed strength in Gold price early Thursday is seen on the back of simmering tensions surrounding US-China trade, which could escalate on a likely Trump presidency. Following the Trump attack, markets are speculating Donald Trump will win the US Presidential election race.

A report that the US was considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China sent chip stocks and the Nasdaq tumbling overnight, led by AI pioneer Nvidia and Apple, per Reuters.  

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 18^th July 2024, @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom: 0.05/0.60                    Cash/Spot:0.20/2.40

 Tom/Spot:  0.15/1.80                    Spot/Next: 0.05/0.60

Cash Date:  18.07.2024

Tom Date:   19.07.2024

Spot Date:  22.07.2024

Outlook for the day 18^th July, 2024

Rupee expected to trade in range of 83.50-83.65

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (16^th July , 2024)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 16^th July , 2024

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 16^th July , 2024

Stock Indices

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