TODAY THURSDAY, 17th July, 2025

USD/INR:

The Indian rupee at open on Thursday will contend with a slide in Asian peers, U.S. Federal Reserve leadership upheaval, and soft U.S. inflation data that slightly strengthened expectations of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open flat-to-slightly weaker versus the U.S. dollar from 85.94 on Wednesday.

The decline in Asian peers may hurt the rupee at open, but the unit remains well-supported around the 86 level based on recent price action.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

The The dollar index whipsawed Thursday, dropping on speculation that President Trump would sack Fed Chair Jerome Powell, before trimming losses after the report was denied. Trump kept up his pressure on the central bank to cut rates.

Trump has been vocal in his frustration with Powell for not cutting rates, which he thinks should be much lower. Trump confirmed that he had floated the idea with Republican lawmakers to fire the Fed chief.

Investors were rattled last week by signals that the White House was paving the way to dismiss Powell — a move that would likely spark a sharp market backlash. U.S. producer prices index came in unchanged for June, compared with expectations for a 0.2% rise, while core or underlying prices were flat. The miss pushed up market odds of a Fed rate cut in September.

Despite that, Asian currencies were mostly weaker on Thursday, pressured by the ongoing turmoil surrounding Fed leadership.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD loses ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders are awaiting the United Kingdom (UK) jobs report, which includes June’s Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months to May, due later in the day.

The GBP/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting, driven by the hotter-than-expected June inflation figures from the United States (US).

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday that the Fed will probably need to leave interest rates where they are for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low in the face of upward pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs. Moreover, New York Fed President John Williams said late Wednesday that monetary policy is in the right place to allow the Fed to monitor the economy before taking its next decision.

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 1.1620 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders will likely observe Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data scheduled to be released later in the day. Focus will shift toward the US Retail Sales data for June, due later in the North American session.

Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) may further gain ground due to rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting due to the tariff uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he plans to send a single letter to over 150 countries, notifying them of a 10% tariff rate they will face. He emphasized that these are "not big countries" with limited trade ties to the US, unlike China or Japan. He also hinted the rate could rise to 15–20%, though he did not confirm any specifics.

Gold:

Gold price (XAU/USD) sticks to intraday gains through the first half of the European session, albeit it lacks follow-through and remains below the $3,350 level. Investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from its highest level since June 23, touched on Tuesday, turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the commodity.

However, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer act as a tailwind for the USD and hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the non-yielding Gold price. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. Investors now look to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and speeches from influential FOMC members for a fresh impetus

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 17^th  July, 2025 @ 09.00am)

 Cash/Tom:   0.05/1.00        Cash/Spot: 0.20/4.00

 Tom/Spot:    0.15/3.00         Spot/Next: 0.05/1.00

Cash Date:    17.07.2025

Tom Date:      18.07.2025

Spot Date:     21.07.2025

Outlook for the day 16^th   July: Rupee expected to trade in range of 85.80/86.10

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (16^th   July, 2025)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 14^th July, 2025

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as on 16^th  July, 2025

Stock Indices

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